2008年的10大離譜預測

商業周刊(Business Week)2008年的10大離譜預測
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原文連結

The Worst Predictions About 2008
Just about everybody got wrong-footed by 2008, but some people's mistakes were truly spectacular
By Peter Coy

Editor's Note: This new version of the "ten worst predictions about 2008" changes three of the ten based on feedback from online readers and BusinessWeek editors. CNBC's Jim Cramer and President Bush are still on the list, but with different predictions. Author Shelby Steele is off the list, replaced by a pair of BusinessWeek writers.

Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008. Savor them—a crop like this doesn't come along every year.

1. "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" —Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008

At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.

2. AIG (AIG) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." —Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under…I think they are in good shape going forward." —Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008
Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

4. "I'm not an economist but I do believe that we're growing." —President George W. Bush, in a July 15, 2008 press conference

Nope. Gross domestic product shrank at a 0.5% annual rate in the July-September quarter. On Dec. 1, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that a recession had begun in December 2007.

5. "I think Bob Steel's the one guy I trust to turn this bank around, which is why I've told you on weakness to buy Wachovia." —Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

Two weeks later, Wachovia came within hours of failure as depositors fled. Steel eventually agreed to a takeover by Wells Fargo. Wachovia shares lost half their value from Sept. 15 to Dec. 29.

6. "Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" —Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007

On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million—down 11% from a year earlier—in the worst housing slump since the Depression.

7. "I think you'll see [oil prices at] $150 a barrel by the end of the year" —T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008

Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.

8. "I expect there will be some failures. … I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system." —Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008

In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup (C) needed an even bigger rescue in November.

9. "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." —Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007

About a year later, Madoff—who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market—told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.

10. "There's growing evidence that parts of the debt markets…are coming back to life." —Peter Coy and Mara Der Hovanesian, BusinessWeek, Oct. 1, 2007.

Oops.


世界日報翻譯連結
不知為何第五和第十項牛頭不對馬嘴
第四項也不知所云
不過還是可以看看摟

10大預測成笑柄 股市最離譜

【世界日報╱編譯中心綜合29日電】 2008.12.30 08:33 pm
商業周刊(Business Week)最近舉出有關2008年的10大離譜預測，並強調，這麼離譜的預測並非年年可見。

1、獲利投資新聞信(Profitable Investing Letter)編輯班德(Richard Band)今年3月27日預測：「股市正醞釀非常強勁和持久的大漲。」當時的道瓊工業指數為1萬2300點，12月底則掉到8500點。

2、分析師莫薩密(Bijan Moazami)5月9日預測，美國國際集團(AIG)今年第2季可望有巨大獲益。結果是，AIG於該季虧損50億元，緊接一季再虧損250億元，9月即被政府接管。

3、國會眾院金融服務委員會主席佛朗克 (Barney Frank，民主黨、麻州)7月14日說：「我想，房地美(Freddie Mac)與房利美(Fannie Mae)營業狀況基本健全。它們沒有倒閉危險。」兩個月後，這兩家房貸巨擘就被政府接管。

4、布希總統3月14日在演說中表示：「此刻市場正在自我糾正。」結果，市場全年都在一直不斷的糾正。

5、CNBC評論員克雷莫(Jim Cramer)3月11日說：「不會！不會！貝爾斯登公司(BearStearns)不會陷入困境。」5天後，這家公司就在政府協助下由摩根大通銀行(JPMorganChase)接管。

6、全國房地產商協會(National Association of Realtors)2007年12月9日新聞稿的標題宣稱：「2008年成屋銷售趨勢將走高。」

7、石油界高級主管皮更斯(T. Boone Pickens)6月20日說：「我想，大家將看到今年底前石油價格將達到每桶150元。」

8、聯邦準備理事會主席柏南基2月28日說：「本人預期將有一些銀行倒閉。但我不預期大規模的國際活躍銀行將有嚴重問題。」9月間，華盛頓互惠公司(WashingtonMutual)成為美國史上規模最大的倒閉銀行。

9、投資公司金融經理馬多夫(Bernard Madoff)去年10月20日說：「在今日的法規管制環境下，幾乎無人能夠違反法規。」大約1年後，他告訴投資者，他大搞龐氏騙局(Ponzischeme)，讓投資者損失500億元。

10、保守派評論員史提爾(Shelby Steele)2007年12月4日出版「A Bound Man: Why WeAre Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win」一書，說明歐巴瑪為何不能當選總統。